Experts Predicting the Future Might As Well Be Picking Out of a Hat

In considering a topic for this week’s Sabbath Thought, a point made in Megan McArdle’s book, The Up Side of Down, sparked my interest.

In a chapter entitled “The Experimenters” she discusses experts and predictions. She discusses a study of experts in various fields who made predictions about a variety of events from the Cold War to Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product. The outcome of the study was surprise because the predictions of the “experts” missed the call. A non-expert could have done as well by picking out of a hat.

She says, “We think that experts do better than they actually do because we tend to remember their successes, but not their mistakes. That’s particularly true if their predictions are spectacular and bold. An economist who goes on television and says that it’s hard to know what the stock market will do is undoubtedly correct, but he will not be famous. One who predicts that it will soar to new heights and sees this prediction borne out will win renown as a prognosticator particularly if everyone else is predicting a bear market.”

Why don’t human experts get it right? Because stock markets, politics, and climate change are all hard to predict precisely. Why? They are hard to predict because they are all complex issues that have a multitude of variables that “experts” cannot fully assess.

One example of this complexity is in the 2016 presidential race. Who of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be president? Experts are predicting sure outcomes, but can they really assess all of the factors? Can they know what will sway the voters? Can they know the backroom deals that are done to infuse money into a particular campaign? Can they predict the voter fraud that can take place in crucial locations? Can they predict economic or societal issues that motivate the electorate? The bottom line in the human realm, it’s hard to predict many outcomes.

That predicting the future is hard doesn’t mean people don’t try. Predictors of the end of the age have repeatedly given this prediction a try.

One of those predictors was William Miller. Based upon Daniel 8:14, Miller became convinced that Christ would come 2300 years after the decree of Artaxerxes in 457 BC. Through his public lectures and publishing his ideas caused many others to become convinced of the timing. All these hopes were dashed when Christ did not return in 1844.

Coming forward in time, the Church of God felt strongly that the tribulation would begin in 1972 and that Christ would return in 1975. However, here we are in 2015 and obviously Christ did not return.

The bottom line is that we can all expertly predict or more actually know that Christ is coming again. We are reassured of this in the book of Acts, to name one passage, “Now when He had spoken these things, while they watched, He was taken up, and a cloud received Him out of their sight. And while they looked steadfastly toward heaven as He went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel, who also said, "Men of Galilee, why do you stand gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, who was taken up from you into heaven, will so come in like manner as you saw Him go into heaven." (Acts 1:9-11).

We know Christ is coming, but we don’t know the day or the hour. “Now learn this parable from the fig tree: When its branch has already become tender and puts forth leaves, you know that summer is near. So you also, when you see all these things, know that it is near — at the doors! Assuredly, I say to you, this generation will by no means pass away till all these things take place. Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words will by no means pass away. But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, but My Father only” (Matthew 24:32-36).

It is given to us to know that Christ is going to return. We are assured of that knowledge. And we are further assured of that coming by the Sabbath every seventh day.

Have an enjoyable Sabbath,

Gary Smith

We Are One, Overwhelmed and in Need of Rest

“What hath God wrought?” Those words were uttered by Samuel Morse in 1844 when the first telegraphic line was set up. The inventor of the telegraph saw the telegraph as a blessing from God.

The invention of the telegraph was a massive technological leap. Prior to the telegraph, communication and transportation were linked. Information was carried by people on foot, by horse, or ship. It took time to spread information. This linking had been the case from the time of the most ancient peoples to 1844.

With the invention of the telegraph, information could be transmitted in an instant by wire. For instance in rowing races held at Poughkeepsie, New York to determine the team that would go to the 1936 Olympics in Berlin, a man was ready at the telegraph to announce to the world the outcome of the races. Instant communication of this sort was viewed as miraculous at that time, but we being accustomed to seeing events around the world in real time see this as almost quaint.

“We are one!” recounted the poem “The Victory,” giving tribute to the telegraph’s inventor, Samuel Morse. Morse’s machine annihilated time and space by allowing information to be transmitted in seconds. Anticipating how the technology could produce a new “global village,” Morse wrote, “. . . the whole surface of this country would be channeled for those nerves which are diffuse, with great speed and thought, a knowledge of all that is occurring through the whole land; making, in fact, one neighborhood of the whole country.” Up until this time few people actually wanted or even needed to know all that was occurring in the land. Nevertheless, the telegraph invited a new type of public conversation that provided information with little or no context” (The Vanishing Word, by Arthur W. Hunt III, p.128).

“This was a new way of perceiving the world—taking it all in whole. Of course, one cannot take the whole world at one time. . . Information, then, became a commodity, a package of fragments and discontinuities of far-off worlds, made to be sold every single day as “news.”

Every day we receive news from all around the world on our TV’s, our radios, our computers, our cell phones, and our IPads. The challenge is there are times when it is overwhelming.

We can probably all remember 9/11/2001 as pictures of planes flying into the Twin Towers were broadcast to the world. It was shocking to see the planes crash into the building and smoke boil out of the building. Our horror was magnified as first one building collapsed and then the other. The event and the images greatly impacted America in 2001, but we are 14 years further along the road of history and there a new images that bombard us daily. Riots, beheadings, natural disasters, inventions, sports to name a few all come our way.

Communication and the images that accompany them flow without ceasing unless we choose to shut the flow off. Our ability to shut out the world from Friday sunset to Saturday at sunset is a precious blessing that God has given us. The Sabbath gives a chance to put “the news” that really matters into perspective. We know that the “news” that really matters is the Good News of the coming kingdom of God. Each Sabbath provides us a time to be refreshed with God’s truth so that as we venture back out into a technologically advanced world we can keep it all in the proper perspective.

Enjoy the Sabbath,

Gary Smith

What Kind of Leader Does Our Nation Need?

A thought we might consider this week comes in light of the Republican presidential debate held this week.

I was watching a discussion among voters who had volunteered to be a part of a group gathered by pollster, Frank Luntz. I was struck by what some voters had to say about the candidates and religion.

It was noted that one of those running for the highest office in the land appears to be quite religious. He allows his Christian religion to enter into his speech and to be reflected in the policies he would promote. The majority of the audience felt that it was unacceptable to mix politics and religion.

It was mentioned that one’s religion was to remain private and there was no need for a president to reflect his religion at all. In fact, it was said that religion was not really needed because of the inherent goodness of the American people.

My point in mentioning this is that if a president’s religion is to remain in private would it be a positive outcome for the nation?

Consider the fact that George Washington was notably religious. You cannot read his writings and not make note of that. He may not have had complete understanding of God and His great plan, but George Washington knew the importance of biblical morality, honesty, and integrity. He lived by many true principles and the nation was enhanced by it.

A second example is found in Abraham Lincoln. Lincoln was not the perfect Christian, but he reflected upon God, and sought to point the nation toward God as President during one
of the most trying times in history. What could be more religious than to call for a national day of prayer requesting that the God of the Bible would save the nation torn apart by war?

One only has to examine the great leaders of the Bible to note that the greatest leaders of the nation of Israel were those who were closest to God. They were not perfect leaders, but their example helped the nation of Israel stay on track during their time of rule. It’s interesting to note what happened to Israel upon the death of a faithful man leading the nation. The outcome was rarely good.

Does our nation need a leader who is a Christian? Does it need a leader who is faithful to God and the people he serves? Does not our nation need a leader who is a true servant? Do we need a leader who is truthful? We need a leader who is all of these things and more. If we had such a leader it would make a huge difference in our nation, but it seems doubtful that such a leader will be raised up at this time.

Thankfully, we know that the leader our nation and the world needs will assume His position as King of Kings and Lord of Lords with the sounding of the seventh trump. His rule will be based upon truth and righteousness. No one will question whether we should have a ruler who is religious. The fruits will be available for the whole world to see.

Happy Sabbath!

Gary Smith