Experts Predicting the Future Might As Well Be Picking Out of a Hat

In considering a topic for this week’s Sabbath Thought, a point made in Megan McArdle’s book, The Up Side of Down, sparked my interest.

In a chapter entitled “The Experimenters” she discusses experts and predictions. She discusses a study of experts in various fields who made predictions about a variety of events from the Cold War to Argentina’s Gross Domestic Product. The outcome of the study was surprise because the predictions of the “experts” missed the call. A non-expert could have done as well by picking out of a hat.

She says, “We think that experts do better than they actually do because we tend to remember their successes, but not their mistakes. That’s particularly true if their predictions are spectacular and bold. An economist who goes on television and says that it’s hard to know what the stock market will do is undoubtedly correct, but he will not be famous. One who predicts that it will soar to new heights and sees this prediction borne out will win renown as a prognosticator particularly if everyone else is predicting a bear market.”

Why don’t human experts get it right? Because stock markets, politics, and climate change are all hard to predict precisely. Why? They are hard to predict because they are all complex issues that have a multitude of variables that “experts” cannot fully assess.

One example of this complexity is in the 2016 presidential race. Who of the Republican and Democratic candidates will be president? Experts are predicting sure outcomes, but can they really assess all of the factors? Can they know what will sway the voters? Can they know the backroom deals that are done to infuse money into a particular campaign? Can they predict the voter fraud that can take place in crucial locations? Can they predict economic or societal issues that motivate the electorate? The bottom line in the human realm, it’s hard to predict many outcomes.

That predicting the future is hard doesn’t mean people don’t try. Predictors of the end of the age have repeatedly given this prediction a try.

One of those predictors was William Miller. Based upon Daniel 8:14, Miller became convinced that Christ would come 2300 years after the decree of Artaxerxes in 457 BC. Through his public lectures and publishing his ideas caused many others to become convinced of the timing. All these hopes were dashed when Christ did not return in 1844.

Coming forward in time, the Church of God felt strongly that the tribulation would begin in 1972 and that Christ would return in 1975. However, here we are in 2015 and obviously Christ did not return.

The bottom line is that we can all expertly predict or more actually know that Christ is coming again. We are reassured of this in the book of Acts, to name one passage, “Now when He had spoken these things, while they watched, He was taken up, and a cloud received Him out of their sight. And while they looked steadfastly toward heaven as He went up, behold, two men stood by them in white apparel, who also said, "Men of Galilee, why do you stand gazing up into heaven? This same Jesus, who was taken up from you into heaven, will so come in like manner as you saw Him go into heaven." (Acts 1:9-11).

We know Christ is coming, but we don’t know the day or the hour. “Now learn this parable from the fig tree: When its branch has already become tender and puts forth leaves, you know that summer is near. So you also, when you see all these things, know that it is near — at the doors! Assuredly, I say to you, this generation will by no means pass away till all these things take place. Heaven and earth will pass away, but My words will by no means pass away. But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, but My Father only” (Matthew 24:32-36).

It is given to us to know that Christ is going to return. We are assured of that knowledge. And we are further assured of that coming by the Sabbath every seventh day.

Have an enjoyable Sabbath,

Gary Smith